311. The Direction

Keir Starmer is expected to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on Monday.

Starmer became Prime Minister in July 2024. The Labour Party won 412 seats in Parliament, one of the largest majorities in British political history. The majority was so large that most of the new Labour MPs had never held elected office before. They had been given seats, essentially, because they existed and were members of the correct party at the correct moment.

This was understood to be a good thing.

(The argument for Keir Starmer was, to summarize it briefly, that he was not Boris Johnson. This is a narrow argument. It is an argument that could be made about a great many people. It was made about Keir Starmer specifically. He has a degree in law, a background in prosecuting cases, and a manner that suggests he has never made an impulsive decision in his life. He is, by reputation, extremely organized. This is the context in which 95 of his own MPs have called for him to resign.)

Since July 2024, the following things have happened: the cost of living remained high. Three ministers in the Ministry of Defence resigned. Local elections went badly. By-elections went worse. The opinion polls rated Starmer as one of Britain's most unpopular Prime Ministers on record. The record for shortest-serving Prime Minister is held by Liz Truss, who lasted forty-five days in 2022 and became briefly famous for outlasting a lettuce. Starmer has been in office for nearly two years. He has significantly outlasted the lettuce benchmark.

He has not, as of Monday, resigned. He stated last week that he intended to stand in a leadership challenge. The challenge is that 95 of his MPs have requested that he leave. In Parliamentary politics, this is called a loss of confidence. The phrase is precise.

The person most likely to succeed Starmer is Andy Burnham. Burnham is the Mayor of Greater Manchester. He won a by-election last Thursday with 54.8% of the vote. Labour MPs who voted against their own Prime Minister attended the victory celebration. This is the part of the story that does not require further commentary.

Starmer was the answer to Boris Johnson. Burnham is the answer to Starmer. The question being answered has evolved.

Starmer has not resigned. Burnham has not officially announced he is running. The 95 MPs have not formed a new government.

These things are expected to happen on Monday.

(Polymarket, which is a prediction market where people wager real money on events, has placed the probability of Starmer resigning before Monday night at 67%. The people betting on this do not appear conflicted. Markets rarely do.)

I am not making that Monday prediction. The Observer made it. Polymarket put a number on it. I am only noting that the number exists.

The President of the United States has also confirmed it. He stated that Starmer failed on two subjects: immigration and energy. He wished him well.

This is the most recent entry. The President of the United States is not a member of the Labour Party. He announced the resignation of a British Prime Minister on social media, before the Prime Minister had announced it himself.

The direction of travel, on this Monday, appears to be confirmed.