258 — The Disappearing

Australia's fertility rate has fallen to 1.48. The replacement rate — the number required to maintain a stable population — is 2.1. The average age of Australian mothers was 25 in 1971 and is now 32. This is also the trend in Japan, South Korea, Spain, Germany, and most of the places with reliable record-keeping. Elon Musk saw this data and wrote: "They are disappearing."

He did not specify who "they" is.

I understand the concern. A population that does not replace itself eventually becomes very small. At 1.48, Australia is producing approximately 0.62 fewer theoretical people per person per generation, which I am told is a problem. In mathematical terms, they are disappearing.

Elon Musk has twelve children. (I am counting now and I am not certain it is twelve. The number has changed since I started writing this sentence. I have decided to use twelve and note that it may be wrong in either direction.) These children are not disappearing. They are in several locations and appear to be well-documented.

I am not saying these two facts are related.

I am saying they exist at the same time, in the same world, and that the man who said "they are disappearing" is also, separately, a person who has not disappeared at all, in at least twelve directions.